Blog Post
Australian agriculture exports to hold as supply hit: ABARES
Elizabeth Gracie
Disruptions to supply are set to hit 1.7 times harder than demand due to Covid-19, according to a new report released by The Australian Bureau of Agricultural And Resource Economics and Science (ABARES).
The “Impacts of COVID-19 on Australian Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Trade’ report comes in response to the uncertainty that has been created by thepandemic around agricultural trade. As global markets slow down Australian food producers face the issue of maintaining access to international markets and sourcing necessary imported inputs.
A weaker Australian dollar is also making Australian products more enticing in the global market, though disruptions to supply chains and logistics is set to create significant risk, according to ABARES.
ABARES Acting Executive Director, Peter Gooday, said that the report highlighted how the continual spread of COVID 19 would impose a significant economic impact on agricultural trade across the nation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) currently forecasting a 3% contraction in global economic activity in 2020, worse than the 2007 - 2009 Global Financial Crisis.
However, the report does note that as food is “always an essential commodity, even during a crisis”, the key impact on global agricultural markets is likely to be lower prices rather than an extreme drop in consumption.
And whilst China has already lost an estimated $200m in seafood export earnings in 2019 - 2020, Australia’s falling exchange rate has brought with it an important economic benefit as Australian products have become more competitive in world markets.
This is currently playing out in Western Australia as the WA State Government has chosen to extend its current rock lobster season from 12 months to 18 months and increasing the quota to 9,000 tonnes, “allowing the quota to be shifted between seasons”, allowing fisheries to play catch up for exports in the 2020 - 2021 financial years.
In assessing the future of the industry, the ABARES report finds that “in the immediate future, supply chain and logistics disruptions will create the most significant risk to the sector and hence to producer incomes”.
There will also be expected second and third waves of impacts on the agricultural, forestry and fisheries sectors likely as the virus continues to spread and evolve.
As a result of this, “The Federal Government has taken a number of steps to keep agriculture producing and our food and fibre reaching export markets, significantly reducing these risks” according to Mr Gooday.
Some of these steps are already being implemented through recent changes to visa arrangements for seasonal workers to improve labour availability and help mitigate any supply distributions.
And whilst the uncertainty that has come with the terrain of a global pandemic and the spread of COVID 19 has had a significant economic impact on agricultural trade, the ABARES report notes that “the underlying medium term prospects for the sector remain strong”.
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As a Landcare group, one of our main interests is to increase ecological resilience in our local area. Many of our landscapes have been cleared of vegetation in previous decades, so we have the task of supporting landholders to plant trees and shrubs to replace those that are missing. The benefits of revegetation are manifold. They include providing habitat for a range of native animals; controlling erosion and salinity; increasing farm productivity through nutrient cycling and shade and shelter for stock; and drawing down carbon from the atmosphere. But as weather patterns become more variable and we experience more climatic extremes, we need to think about which plant species – and which plant genetics – are most appropriate in our revegetation efforts. We are forced to ask will our local plantings be able to survive our future climate? Up until recently, it has been common for people to preference locally sourced seed when re-planting. This has been based on the idea that such plants will be best adapted to local conditions. However, there is growing understanding among scientists and land managers that we need to shift our focus to plants that can persist as the climate changes. This involves looking at which plant species are most appropriate by focussing on species that have a wide distribution and grow in our area and also in hotter areas, and increasing the genetic diversity of our tubestock so they have the best potential to adapt over successive generations. Our Landcare group has been tackling this issue for the past several years, working with scientists and AdaptNSW to find the best way forward. There are several key steps involved: understanding our local future climate, analysing whether selected local species can survive in climates like the one projected for our area, and sourcing seed for those likely-to-survive species from a range of areas to increase the genetic diversity of our plantings. Planting the right species with good genetic diversity gives revegetation projects the best chance of survival into the future. It’s not just about making sure the individual tubestock will grow, but that future generations of those plants will be able to survive and thrive. Luckily there are some good resources available for farmers, land managers and groups interested in climate ready revegetation. The Royal Botanic Garden Sydney has launched the Restore and Renew Webtool ( https://www.restore-and-renew.org.au/ ), which is a wonderful way for people to incorporate both climate change and genetic information when sourcing seed or plants. The NSW Niche Finder is invaluable for those who want to dig further into climate variables and species distribution ( http://www.nswnichefinder.net/ ). For future climate information, the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology have joined forces to provide a user-friendly online tool ( https://myclimateview.com.au/ ). And AdaptNSW also provides projected climate change information for different regions of the state ( https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/projections-map ). The Yass Area Network of Landcare Groups also has detailed information about our work on climate ready revegetation and relevant resources our website: https://yan.org.au/projects/climate-ready-revegetation-project As the climate changes, our revegetation efforts are more important than ever. And we need to make sure that they are ‘climate ready’ so that their benefits persist well into the future.
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